Press Release: Preliminary National Voter Turnout and Vote Share of the TI Cambodia’s Sample Based Observation

Preliminary National Voter Turnout and Vote Share of the TI Cambodia’s Sample Based Observation

Phnom Penh, 22 June 2017

As part of its sample-based observation (SBO) of the 2017 commune/sangkat council elections, TI Cambodia estimated the national vote share for CPP and CNRP and the national turnout rate, based on reports from 822 observers deployed to a random, representative sample of 411 sample polling stations in all 25 provinces. SBO is an advanced election observation methodology, used worldwide, that draws on proven statistics to allow election observers to present an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the Election Day process.

Based on its SBO, TI Cambodia estimated national-level turnout. In addition, TI Cambodia estimated the CPP and CNRP’s national vote shares as they were the two parties competing across the country. More details on these turnout and vote share estimates are provided below.

In addition, TI Cambodia deployed 200 observers to all 100 of the polling stations in three communes: Cham Chau Bei commune in Phnom Penh province, Bavet commune in Svay Rieng province, and Dam Daek commune in Siem Reap province. TI Cambodia’s observers reported vote figures, and TI Cambodia tallied all votes in these three communes. In all three communes, TI Cambodia’s vote tallies match the NEC’s official results. This demonstrates that the official results in these three communes reflects the actual ballots as counted in polling stations.

National Vote Share and Turnout Estimates

TI Cambodia’s sample-based observation estimates the final national-level voter turnout figure to be between 89.7% and 90.7%. TI Cambodia estimates the final national-level vote share for CPP to be between 47.9% and 50.9%, and the national vote share for CNRP to be between 41.8% and 44.6%.

TI Cambodia’s estimated national-level vote shares and turnout are based on the official figures on Forms 1101 and 1102 from reports from all 411 polling stations out of TI Cambodia’s nationally representative sample. The distribution of TI Cambodia’s sampled polling stations as compared to all of the polling stations by province is shown in Annex 1. This shows that the sample is representative, as the distribution of sampled polling stations matches the distribution of all polling stations nationwide.

Table 1 and the chart below show TI Cambodia’s estimates for national-level voter turnout and vote share for CPP and CNRP. In addition, TI Cambodia is not yet able to verify the CPP and CNRP’s national vote shares with NEC, as these figures have not yet been released by NEC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 1: TI Cambodia National-level Estimates for the 2017 Commune Elections

Party/Turnout	NEC Preliminary Result	TI-C Estimate	TI-C Margin of Error
CPP	Not Yet Released	49.4%	+/- 1.5%
CNRP	Not Yet Released	43.2%	+/- 1.4%
Invalid Ballots	Not Yet Released	1.9%	+/- 0.2%
Turnout	89.52%	90.2%	+/- 0.5%

 

 Complete Parallel Vote Tally in Three Communes

TI Cambodia deployed 200 observers at all 100 of the polling stations in three selected communes:

• 32 observers to all 16 polling stations in Bavet commune, Svay Rieng province.
• 118 observers to al 59 polling stations in Cham Chau Bei commune, Phnom Penh province.
• 50 observers to all 25 polling stations in Dam Daek commune, Siem Reap province

TI Cambodia received observer reports from 100% of these 100 polling stations. Observer reports included the figures recorded on forms 1101 (polling minutes form) and 1102 (results form). TI Cambodia’s tally of these figures for each commune is shown in Tables 2, 3 and 4 below.

As shown in the tables, TI Cambodia’s vote tallies are consistent with the NEC’s results in all three communes.

Table 2: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Bavet Commune

Party	NEC Results	TI-C Tally	Percent of Vote Share
CNRP	4250	4250	50.2%
CPP	4093	4093	48.3%
Invalid Ballots	123	123	1.5%
Total	8466	8466	100%

 

Table 3: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Dam Daek Commune

Party	NEC Results	TI-C Tally	Percent of Vote Share
KNSP	96	96	1.3%
CNRP	3565	3565	50.1%
CPP	2817	2817	39.6%
LDP	368	368	5.2%
FUNCINPEC	156	156	2.2%
Invalid Ballots	115	115	1.6%
Total	7117	7117	100%

 

Table 4: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Cham Chau Bei Commune

Party	NEC Results	TI-C Tally	Percent of Vote Share
CPP	7682	7682	40.5%
CNRP	10531	10531	55.5%
LDP	451	451	2.4%
Invalid Ballots	296	295	1.6%
Total	18960	18959	100%

 

Contact details

 

For further information related to Sample Based Observation, please refer to www.ticambodia.org/sbo2017.

Annex 1: Comparison of All Polling Stations with TI-C’s Sampled Polling Stations

 

Province	All polling stations	TI-C Sampled Polling Stations	% of all polling stations	% of TI-C sampled polling stations	Difference
Banteay Meanchey	1019	19	4.6%	4.6%	0.0%
Battambang	1566	29	7.1%	7.1%	0.0%
Kampong Cham	1555	29	7.0%	7.1%	0.0%
Kampong Chhnang	781	15	3.5%	3.6%	-0.1%
Kampong Speu	1472	27	6.6%	6.6%	0.1%
Kampong Thom	1053	20	4.8%	4.9%	-0.1%
Kampot	932	17	4.2%	4.1%	0.1%
Kandal	1720	32	7.8%	7.8%	0.0%
Kep	63	1	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
Koh Kong	179	3	0.8%	0.7%	0.1%
Kratie	501	9	2.3%	2.2%	0.1%
Mondulkiri	122	2	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%
Oddar Meanchey	361	7	1.6%	1.7%	-0.1%
Pailin	114	2	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Phnom Penh	2080	39	9.4%	9.5%	-0.1%
Preah Vihear	328	6	1.5%	1.5%	0.0%
Prey Veng	1749	32	7.9%	7.8%	0.1%
Pursat	679	13	3.1%	3.2%	-0.1%
Ratanakiri	273	5	1.2%	1.2%	0.0%
Siem Reap	1389	26	6.3%	6.3%	-0.1%
Sihanouk Ville	280	5	1.3%	1.2%	0.0%
Stung Treng	207	4	0.9%	1.0%	0.0%
Svay Rieng	921	17	4.2%	4.1%	0.0%
Takeo	1525	28	6.9%	6.8%	0.1%
Tbong Khmum	1279	24	5.8%	5.8%	-0.1%
Grand Total	22148	411

 

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