Press Release: Preliminary National Voter Turnout and Vote Share of the TI Cambodia’s Sample Based Observation

Preliminary National Voter Turnout and Vote Share of the TI Cambodia’s Sample Based Observation

Phnom Penh, 22 June 2017

As part of its sample-based observation (SBO) of the 2017 commune/sangkat council elections, TI Cambodia estimated the national vote share for CPP and CNRP and the national turnout rate, based on reports from 822 observers deployed to a random, representative sample of 411 sample polling stations in all 25 provinces. SBO is an advanced election observation methodology, used worldwide, that draws on proven statistics to allow election observers to present an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the Election Day process.

Based on its SBO, TI Cambodia estimated national-level turnout. In addition, TI Cambodia estimated the CPP and CNRP’s national vote shares as they were the two parties competing across the country. More details on these turnout and vote share estimates are provided below.

In addition, TI Cambodia deployed 200 observers to all 100 of the polling stations in three communes: Cham Chau Bei commune in Phnom Penh province, Bavet commune in Svay Rieng province, and Dam Daek commune in Siem Reap province. TI Cambodia’s observers reported vote figures, and TI Cambodia tallied all votes in these three communes. In all three communes, TI Cambodia’s vote tallies match the NEC’s official results. This demonstrates that the official results in these three communes reflects the actual ballots as counted in polling stations.

National Vote Share and Turnout Estimates

TI Cambodia’s sample-based observation estimates the final national-level voter turnout figure to be between 89.7% and 90.7%. TI Cambodia estimates the final national-level vote share for CPP to be between 47.9% and 50.9%, and the national vote share for CNRP to be between 41.8% and 44.6%.

TI Cambodia’s estimated national-level vote shares and turnout are based on the official figures on Forms 1101 and 1102 from reports from all 411 polling stations out of TI Cambodia’s nationally representative sample. The distribution of TI Cambodia’s sampled polling stations as compared to all of the polling stations by province is shown in Annex 1. This shows that the sample is representative, as the distribution of sampled polling stations matches the distribution of all polling stations nationwide.

Table 1 and the chart below show TI Cambodia’s estimates for national-level voter turnout and vote share for CPP and CNRP. In addition, TI Cambodia is not yet able to verify the CPP and CNRP’s national vote shares with NEC, as these figures have not yet been released by NEC

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Table 1: TI Cambodia National-level Estimates for the 2017 Commune Elections

Party/Turnout NEC Preliminary Result TI-C Estimate TI-C Margin

of Error

CPP Not Yet Released 49.4% +/- 1.5%
CNRP Not Yet Released 43.2% +/- 1.4%
Invalid Ballots Not Yet Released 1.9% +/- 0.2%
Turnout 89.52% 90.2% +/- 0.5%

 

 Complete Parallel Vote Tally in Three Communes

TI Cambodia deployed 200 observers at all 100 of the polling stations in three selected communes:

  • 32 observers to all 16 polling stations in Bavet commune, Svay Rieng province.
  • 118 observers to al 59 polling stations in Cham Chau Bei commune, Phnom Penh province.
  • 50 observers to all 25 polling stations in Dam Daek commune, Siem Reap province

TI Cambodia received observer reports from 100% of these 100 polling stations. Observer reports included the figures recorded on forms 1101 (polling minutes form) and 1102 (results form). TI Cambodia’s tally of these figures for each commune is shown in Tables 2, 3 and 4 below.

As shown in the tables, TI Cambodia’s vote tallies are consistent with the NEC’s results in all three communes.

Table 2: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Bavet Commune

Party NEC Results TI-C Tally Percent of

Vote Share

CNRP 4250 4250 50.2%
CPP 4093 4093 48.3%
Invalid Ballots 123 123 1.5%
Total 8466  8466  100%

 

Table 3: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Dam Daek Commune

Party NEC Results TI-C Tally Percent of

Vote Share

KNSP 96 96 1.3%
CNRP 3565 3565 50.1%
CPP 2817 2817 39.6%
LDP 368 368 5.2%
FUNCINPEC 156 156 2.2%
Invalid Ballots 115 115 1.6%
Total 7117  7117 100% 

 

Table 4: TI Cambodia Vote Tally for Cham Chau Bei Commune

Party NEC Results TI-C Tally Percent of

Vote Share

CPP 7682 7682 40.5%
CNRP 10531 10531 55.5%
LDP 451 451 2.4%
Invalid Ballots 296 295 1.6%
Total 18960   18959 100%

 

Contact details

 

For further information related to Sample Based Observation, please refer to www.ticambodia.org/sbo2017.

Annex 1: Comparison of All Polling Stations with TI-C’s Sampled Polling Stations

 

Province All polling stations TI-C Sampled Polling Stations % of all polling stations % of TI-C sampled polling stations Difference
Banteay Meanchey 1019 19 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Battambang 1566 29 7.1% 7.1% 0.0%
Kampong Cham 1555 29 7.0% 7.1% 0.0%
Kampong Chhnang 781 15 3.5% 3.6% -0.1%
Kampong Speu 1472 27 6.6% 6.6% 0.1%
Kampong Thom 1053 20 4.8% 4.9% -0.1%
Kampot 932 17 4.2% 4.1% 0.1%
Kandal 1720 32 7.8% 7.8% 0.0%
Kep 63 1 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Koh Kong 179 3 0.8% 0.7% 0.1%
Kratie 501 9 2.3% 2.2% 0.1%
Mondulkiri 122 2 0.6% 0.5% 0.1%
Oddar Meanchey 361 7 1.6% 1.7% -0.1%
Pailin 114 2 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Phnom Penh 2080 39 9.4% 9.5% -0.1%
Preah Vihear 328 6 1.5% 1.5% 0.0%
Prey Veng 1749 32 7.9% 7.8% 0.1%
Pursat 679 13 3.1% 3.2% -0.1%
Ratanakiri 273 5 1.2% 1.2% 0.0%
Siem Reap 1389 26 6.3% 6.3% -0.1%
Sihanouk Ville 280 5 1.3% 1.2% 0.0%
Stung Treng 207 4 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Svay Rieng 921 17 4.2% 4.1% 0.0%
Takeo 1525 28 6.9% 6.8% 0.1%
Tbong Khmum 1279 24 5.8% 5.8% -0.1%
Grand Total 22148 411

 

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